Category Archives: COVID-19

The COVID trajectory has taken off

The situation is becoming more dismal with exponential growth well under way Almost five days have slipped by since I wrote that we needed a COVID19 reset.  Since then, the infection trajectory has taken off, as I both feared and … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

New Zealand needs a COVID reset

The current COVID strategy needs an urgent reset. It is now evident that staying in Level 3 over coming weeks will lead to a dismal Christmas Last year I wrote many articles on COVID19, starting five weeks before the first … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, Uncategorized | 12 Comments

The winding path of COVID-19

The COVID-19 path is turning a corner but there are still huge challenges ahead. 2021 will be another year where lifestyles and the economy will be dominated by COVID-19 This is the nineteenth time I have written about COVID-19 since … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Coronavirus border policies need a deeper rethink

New Zealand’s current coronavirus border policies fail to reflect the current Northern Hemisphere surge in cases and the consequent enhanced risks to COVID-19 management in New Zealand There are big contradictions within New Zealand’s coronavirus border policies. There is potential … Continue reading

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Posted in COVID-19 | 16 Comments

COVID-19 scenarios are becoming increasingly evident

Despite the uncertainties, there is emerging evidence as to how COVID-19 is now likely to play out, both in New Zealand and across the globe. Identifying these scenarios is fundamental to subsequent response strategies for economic recovery There are two … Continue reading

Posted in China, COVID-19, Uncategorized | 18 Comments

COVID-19 is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability

COVID-19 illustrates the difficulties society has in dealing with uncertainties and the stresses this creates No one can say with confidence what our COVID-9 world is going to look like over the next 12 to 24 months. The rules and … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 11 Comments

Monday’s COVID-19 decision will be a defining moment for New Zealand

The forthcoming decision as to when we should move to COVID LEVEL 3 is high risk, with expectations high, but not enough information for confident decision-making The decision the New Zealand Government makes on Monday 20 April is likely to … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 14 Comments

Contact-tracing will be the Achilles heel of the COVID-19 program at LEVEL 3

There are big risks to the COVID-19 campaign if we move to LEVEL 3 too quickly without greatly improved contact-tracing. There is no way back if we get this wrong Last Thursday (9 April), many Kiwis would have been feeling … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 18 Comments

COVID-19 decision-makers are flying blind from insufficient testing data

There is a need for COVID-19 serology testing to complement the current PCR testing with swabs. The current deficiency threatens good decision-making around the lockdown. The fundamental problem facing COVID decision-makers is that they are flying blind owing to lack … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 11 Comments

Can we stamp out COVID-19?

The key issue with eliminating COVID-19 from New Zealand is whether or not the transmission rate, alternatively worded as the reproduction rate, R., can be reduced to well below ‘1’ and kept there.   This value of R=1 is where each … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 7 Comments