Category Archives: COVID-19

The winding path of COVID-19

The COVID-19 path is turning a corner but there are still huge challenges ahead. 2021 will be another year where lifestyles and the economy will be dominated by COVID-19 This is the nineteenth time I have written about COVID-19 since … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Coronavirus border policies need a deeper rethink

New Zealand’s current coronavirus border policies fail to reflect the current Northern Hemisphere surge in cases and the consequent enhanced risks to COVID-19 management in New Zealand There are big contradictions within New Zealand’s coronavirus border policies. There is potential … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 16 Comments

COVID-19 scenarios are becoming increasingly evident

Despite the uncertainties, there is emerging evidence as to how COVID-19 is now likely to play out, both in New Zealand and across the globe. Identifying these scenarios is fundamental to subsequent response strategies for economic recovery There are two … Continue reading

Posted in China, COVID-19, Uncategorized | 18 Comments

COVID-19 is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability

COVID-19 illustrates the difficulties society has in dealing with uncertainties and the stresses this creates No one can say with confidence what our COVID-9 world is going to look like over the next 12 to 24 months. The rules and … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 11 Comments

Monday’s COVID-19 decision will be a defining moment for New Zealand

The forthcoming decision as to when we should move to COVID LEVEL 3 is high risk, with expectations high, but not enough information for confident decision-making The decision the New Zealand Government makes on Monday 20 April is likely to … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 14 Comments

Contact-tracing will be the Achilles heel of the COVID-19 program at LEVEL 3

There are big risks to the COVID-19 campaign if we move to LEVEL 3 too quickly without greatly improved contact-tracing. There is no way back if we get this wrong Last Thursday (9 April), many Kiwis would have been feeling … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 18 Comments

COVID-19 decision-makers are flying blind from insufficient testing data

There is a need for COVID-19 serology testing to complement the current PCR testing with swabs. The current deficiency threatens good decision-making around the lockdown. The fundamental problem facing COVID decision-makers is that they are flying blind owing to lack … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 11 Comments

Can we stamp out COVID-19?

The key issue with eliminating COVID-19 from New Zealand is whether or not the transmission rate, alternatively worded as the reproduction rate, R., can be reduced to well below ‘1’ and kept there.   This value of R=1 is where each … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 7 Comments

COVID-19 and New Zealand’s agriculltural trade

Despite any attempts to diversify away from China, exports to China will be increasingly important in coming months as much of the world descends into increasing turmoil With COVID-19 now dominating all of our lives, it was easy to decide … Continue reading

Posted in Agribusiness, China, COVID-19, Dairy, Fonterra, Meat Industry | 7 Comments

NZ Government takes the big step forward with COVID-19

Today’s announcement about moving to Level 4 changes the COVID-19 landscape. We are now back on track. Today’s decision by the NZ Government to move immediately to Level 3, and then to Level 4 in 48 hours, is the big … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | 3 Comments